Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.
I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!
Didn’t 538 inaccurately call the past 2 elections? Either way- vote like polls don’t exist!
They don’t call elections. They tell you the odds.
Aaaaand… weren’t they wrong the past two elections?
Someone doesn’t understand probability.
Oh I understand it just fine. Fine enough not to rely on polling to indicate anything. 538 isn’t accurate. Why is that up for debate?
Odds can’t be wrong?
If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?
