First, let’s recap the relevant tiebreakers for teams in different divisions.

  1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.

There are 6 teams in the wildcard picture, barring something crazy like one of the division leaders losing out

Team W14 W15 W16 W17 W18
PIT NE IND CIN SEA BAL
IND CIN PIT ATL LVR HOU
CLE JAX CHI HOU NYJ CIN
HOU NYJ TEN CLE TEN IND
DEN LAC DET NE LAC LVR
BUF KC DAL LAC NE MIA

Only 3 of those teams get wild card spots!

With 4 weeks left, there are far too many scenarios left to cover them all. So let’s fill in wins and losses in games that aren’t a head-to-head matchup between any of these 6 teams. For these games, I’m giving the win to the team that currently has the better record.

Team W14 W15 W16 W17 W18 Record Conference Record
PIT NE - W IND - ? CIN - W SEA - W BAL - L 10-6 (1?) 7-4 (1?)
IND CIN - W PIT - ? ATL - W LVR - W HOU - ? 10-5 (2?) 7-3 (2?)
CLE JAX - L CHI - W HOU - ? NYJ - W CIN - W 10-6 (1?) 7-4 (1?)
HOU NYJ - W TEN - W CLE - ? TEN - W IND - ? 10-5 (2?) 7-3 (2?)
DEN LAC - W DET - L NE - W LAC - W LVR - W 10-7 7-5
BUF KC - L DAL - L LAC - W NE - W MIA - L 8-9 5-7

Buffalo’s 8-9 record eliminates them in this discussion

Then there are 3 head-to-heads between relevant teams. PIT vs IND, HOU vs CLE, IND vs HOU. The scenarios for those games:

PIT vs IND CLE vs HOU IND vs HOU Broncos make playoffs?
PIT wins CLE wins IND wins No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams
PIT wins CLE wins HOU wins No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams
PIT wins HOU wins IND wins No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams
PIT wins HOU wins HOU wins MAYBE, 3 way tie with DEN CLE IND, losing on MoV -39 to +4 to +13
IND wins CLE wins IND wins No, 3 way tie with DEN PIT HOU, HOU wins on h-to-h sweep
IND wins CLE wins HOU wins No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams
IND wins HOU wins IND wins YES, 7th seed (CLE eliminates PIT via divisional tiebreaker, DEN eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker)
IND wins HOU wins HOU wins YES, 7th seed (CLE eliminates PIT via divisional tiebreaker, DEN eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker)

TL;DR 1 If the team with the better record wins outside of head-to-heads, then only 2 of the 8 combinations of results in those head to heads realistically gets us in the playoffs

Now what if Denver wins out? That would mean the only upset in these non-head-to-head games would be Denver beating Detroit. In that case, these same 3 head-to-head matchups still determine the outcome.

PIT vs IND CLE vs HOU IND vs HOU Broncos make playoffs?
PIT wins CLE wins IND wins No, lose 4 way tie on conference record
PIT wins CLE wins HOU wins No, lose 4 way tie on conference record
PIT wins HOU wins IND wins No, lose 4 way tie on conference record
PIT wins HOU wins HOU wins YES, 7th seed
IND wins CLE wins IND wins YES, 7th seed
IND wins CLE wins HOU wins No, lose 4 way tie on conference record
IND wins HOU wins IND wins YES, 7th seed
IND wins HOU wins HOU wins YES, 7th seed

TL;DR 2 Even if we win out, we only have a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs if the relevant teams don’t have any upset losses.

So even if we win out we’ve got to root for some upsets! Possibilities:

Week 14: PIT v NE, IND v CIN, HOU v NYJ

Week 15: CLE v CHI, HOU v TEN

Week 16: PIT v CIN, IND v ATL

Week 17: PIT v SEA, IND v LVR, CLE v NYJ, HOU v TEN

Week 18: CLE v CIN

Losing to the Texans is really going to cost us.