According to the often-cited 3.5% rule, if 3.5% of a population protests against a regime, the regime will fail. Developed by political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, who researched civil resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006, the rule has seen renewed interest in leftist circles recently, especially with No Kings protests attracting historic numbers.
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This shows the outsize impact a single protester can have, the study’s authors say. That’s because having one more attender at a demonstration rallies more support for a political cause than acquiring one more vote during an election does.
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In the context of civil rights, the movement’s ability to elicit violence from its opponents – such as in 1965, when armed police violently attacked peaceful protesters crossing the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama – only strengthened public support for the cause. “When the state is perceived as engaging in excess use of force, that tends to generate very sympathetic coverage, and that drives concern,” explained Wasow.
As this article is related to the US, I don’t see much fear from them at all. No King? Nothing happened. ICE protests? Meh, normal reactions outside of Los Angeles, and even that has cooled off entirely.
They saw nothing came of a year of protesting. They have no fear.
One could argue that the excesses of ICE against peaceful protests have helped somewhat in that they’ve created a legal basis for the judiciary to limit their power.
But, that only matters if there is a material change, and there certainly hasn’t been enough of that. Innocent people are still being rounded up and the concentration camps are still running.
Bu-but some meanie heads are gonna quit their jobs and be replaced with other meanie heads!!! That means we win right???