P.S. Apparently I’m a bit absent-minded, and the sentencing was recently reported about in this thread, where a considerable amount of discussion also followed.
It’s sad to note that people in Hong Kong have lost their fight for democracy, and are being repressed for trying what they could.
Some notes, to help folks stay better informed:
Ukraine has been firing ATACMS into “Russia” (occupied and annexed Crimea) for a good year already, without World War 3 breaking out
Ukraine has its own missiles too (mostly cruise, not ballistic, but they had at least a few dozen Soviet-made “Tochka” SRBMs) and they’ve been firing those at high value targets in Russia from day one of getting invaded, it’s simply that their supplies of Tochka have almost entirely run out, and their home-grown missile industry is a big fat target for Russian attacks (despite which Ukraine produces missiles, but currently not ballistic missiles of a practically usable sort)
ATACMS is effective and practical, with a cluster warhead it has shown ability of taking out Russian air defense batteries (S-400 and such), which are difficult targets to attack
this time too, air defense failed to stop them and they caused secondary detonations at a large ammunition storage site
since Russia is still attempting to conquer Ukraine, now with added North Korean soldiers sent by their dictator, there continues to be plentiful ground for other countries to supply Ukraine with more advanced stuff to fire at the invaders, lest they invade more of Ukraine or start invading elsewhere
foreign ballistic missiles that Russia has fired into Ukraine include North Korean and Iranian missiles, so foreign-made BMs flying about is ordinary stuff in this war
As far as I read, he had a leg spinal injury and an operation scheduled (bad stuff for a ballet dancer - you can’t work with an injured leg spine) and was experiencing difficulties with alcohol and painkillers (the latter for the injury). He might have felt that his career was doomed.
As far as I read, he called his girlfriend (or maybe ex-wife, as the article suggests) and asked her to visit him. When she arrived, he had already fallen.
He was characterized as optimistic and nobody had noticed a death wish. Then again, during injury, pain, inability to work, (self-)medication and maybe withdrawal symptoms, other people’s predictions of character may not entirely apply to every person.
The balcony was described as not the safest place on Earth. It doesn’t require a detective to suspect that being under the influence of strong painkillers might increase the risk.
He can’t be characterized as an opposition figure, or a figure of power. There is no clear beneficiary or motive.
As for war and statements against it - he was an artist, a dancer in a publicly funded theatre, and limited by that in what he could say without losing his job. Since it seems that he had reasonable political opinions, inability to voice them without experiencing retribution probably didn’t make him cheerful.
Level 3000 hack: compromise security with drone fleas that jump onto drone dogs.
Level 9000 hack: join the pack with a drone attack dog.
In this video you can see soldiers patrolling the borders with rifles and dogs and using drones to scan the area, what’s your definition of heavily armed?
The clue here is that soldiers typically don’t have dogs - their job is not tracking anyone. The folks you see are probably border guards. (Another clue is that soldiers would be expected to carry at least one proper machine gun per squad, items like grenades and grenade launchers, etc.)
The ukrainian military also have checkpoints in the west border to make sure any male between 18 and 60 doesn’t leave the country so that they can be forced into war.
In the west, you should expect to find the border guard. They are capable of checking databases and patrolling in nature, but aren’t heavily armed. And tens of thousands of guys have taken leave on their own, despite anything the border guard can do. If one doesn’t like the draft, one hikes out via the Carpathian mountains.
As for the draft, yes, it’s a real thing. Of course it’s unjust, people should be able to live in peace - hence no agressor should invade any land. Having to take up weapons sucks. But when a war on this scale gets started, states will draft soldiers into their armies. Many will dodge it. Since hundreds of thousands of soldiers are needed, lots of mistakes will be made, and will be sorted out later (units don’t actually want soldiers who aren’t capable of fighting).
Ultimately, who was called up but absolutely doesn’t want to fight, must choose among these roles:
Obviously, everyone is not competent to become a medic. The remaining positions are attainable. So, in the end, it’s mostly people willing to fight at least somewhat, who end up fighting. Some of them get disillusioned and desert, however. That’s normal too, in a large war that lasts long. I don’t hold it against them.
I’m not from Ukraine, and not a military person, but I cooperate with military people, supplying drones and stuff that helps bring hostile drones down (profit is not involved). So inevitably I do know the approximate situation.
I’ve read some things by Malatesta before (not much from Goldman), so thanks for the reading tips. There is a nuance, though. Once some country has started a conquest attempt, any disarmament will only give them victory. Disarmament is only possible when it’s mutual, and then I fully support it. The article by Goldman that you suggested seems to originate from 1915, when World War I was being fought in Europe. I remind that World War I had no clear agressor, and indeed, anarchists of all countries tried to overthrow the ruling regimes (which were mostly undemocratic, frequently dictatorial and imperial).
The current situation somewhat differs. There is a clear agressor, which happens to be a dictatorship and an empire, supported by other dictatorships and a messed up theocracy. There happens to be a clearly defined victim of agression, which happens to be mostly democratic, supported by places that are reasonably democratic. I believe that if Malatesta lived today, I could convince him to start a charity that supplies Ukrainians. :)
I hope for revolutionary conditions to arise in Russia, but that will be a long wait. My comrades there tried and lost, they’ve mostly emigrated by now. Some are imprisoned, some still keep trying (I can’t estimate what the percentages are, people don’t talk openly of such things), but there are approximately 4 times as much cops per capita in Russia compared to a normal country, so their chances are miserable.
If you are sure about something, then bring evidence of considerable off-label activities.
In response to your response about “Nordic Response”:
Surveillance, patrols, road control posts, vehicle inspection, control of air space, minesweeping, evacuation of civilians, and riot control were important part of the exercise.”
Those are realistic military duties in war time. Every military practises them. Where do you find a fault?
An example from real life: the Ukrainian military has checkpoints on roads near the frontline. Moving with a vehicle, you’d expect to show papers, say a few words and maybe even show transported goods. The purpose? Finding reconnaisance / sabotage groups, which every competent enemy is expected to send. If an opponent doesn’t send recon or saboteurs, they are fools. If a military doesn’t learn how to deter those, they’re fools.
How does one learn? After dry reading in a classroom: one holds an excercise. There’s a home team and an opposing team. The home team checks, the opposing team infiltrates. Both teams report what they achieved, results get compared. If the blue team found the “saboteurs”, good. If the red team “blew up” all bridges and pipelines in the area, people think hard about what they did wrong. If they don’t practise, they don’t get to think hard.
While the ability to counteract styrofoam pollution is of course good, sadly this doesn’t apply to other plastics in general. Some plastics are physically hard or chemically much harder to break than polystyrene (PP, PVC, ABS, anything that it fiber reinforced) .
So, while the worms are nice, one should not hope they can help with other plastics.
Based on this, I conclude: the NATO of today is a mostly defensive alliance with some taints in its history.
It is currently very busy doing a real job - opposing a conquering dictator named Vladimir Putin.
I wish it luck, as long as it sticks to its declared purpose. If it oversteps, I will revise my opinion.
The EU has by now significantly outpaid the US, and out-supported the US in Ukraine. However, for historical reasons, it lacks certain items which Ukrainians badly need (tactical ballistic missiles and anti-missile defense, to bring good examples).
On the matter of aircraft, I should especially emphasize that EU countries have given fighter aircraft, but the US has not. The US is currently attempting to get through the bureaucracy of approving a Swedish AWACS aircraft (with some US components) going to Ukraine.
Educate thyself here, military people use this resource and approve of it:
So, NATO had a problematic operation, trying to establish (and coordinate the establishment of) guerilla stay-behind troops to use in the event of Soviet takeover - and the operation went especially problematic in Italy during the Years of Lead, where some of those guys associated with right-wing terrorists. The year was 1969 or so.
Basing on this, how do I conclude anything about the NATO of today?
Disclaimer: I was asked to hold an anti NATO speech during a protest event during a NATO summit. Being a moderately honest anarchist, I held a speech denouncing the practises seen in Afghanistan (the year was 2012), but emphasized that collective self defense is a valuable thing to have (a common attitude here in Eastern Europe), and added that if the alliance would bother doing what it says on the sticker, I would support it.
NATO is an alliance of various countries. Some of them aren’t nice or democratic (classic example: Turkey). Mixed bag, and constantly changing. Membership in NATO is not a letter of indulgence for a member state to do anything - allies are obliged to help only if someone attacks a member state. If a NATO member attacks someone else, allies can ignore the affair or even oppose the member (example: Turkey recently bombed Kurdish troops in Syria so sloppily that threatened US troops shot down a Turkish drone).
In his shoes, I would think twice - does their team really want to present their dirtiest laundry to the world - such as owing an election to a media oligarch?
As for the EU, it’s a massive bureaucracy which still follows its own laws. It probably won’t change track. There is no single person to change its track.
However, at this stage of the game, I have the nagging feeling that some American may downregulate Elon Musk directly, far before the EU manages to step on his precious toe.
Quick analysis: the US flushed itself down the toilet.
Likely fact: Republicans now control all 4 towers of the castle (president, senate, house of representatives and surpreme court).
Conclusion: the situation allows Republicans to steamroll legislation into force.
Further conclusion: US voters really don’t understand what they are doing.
Climate: it’s bad, but one president’s rule is short. Trump will withdraw from the Paris treaty and sabotage domestic attempts to curb emissions. Europe and China will continue their attempts because they haven’t changed, and they want energy independence. Climate is a system with great inertia. We are beaten by the mistakes of previous decades, new generations will be beaten by our mistakes. Increasingly hard.
Ukraine: the situation is very bad. The Biden administration won approval for 60 billion of support in spring, but according to Zelensky, only 10% has been delivered so far. Unless the DoD hurries the hell out of itself, Trump will close the tap on aid that Biden secured. Trump will try diplomacy, but Putin’s administration is made of a different sort of people. They are running for life while Trumpists are running for lunch. Putin will politely send him where sun doesn’t shine and continue grinding meat, now with an added flavour of North Korean. Ukraine faces a very difficult choice: fight a retreating war in conditions of decreasing aid, hoping that revolutionary conditions arise in Russia… or make peace with the attacker, giving them territory. Ukraine will need all the assistance it can get from anywhere. Knowing this, and knowing the risk of a Trump re-election, I started developing a drone system 6 months ago. It has gone through many iterations and might be capable of combat in the coming month. I didn’t sign up to live in a world like this, but hey, you take what you’re given. :(
If the war in Ukraine gives Putin territory and peace as a result, Putin and his heirs know that you can get territory and peace with war: any place in Eastern Europe could be next.
In summer, Congress locked away the keys for leaving NATO, but Republicans now control both houses and Trump has cleansed the party of dissenters. Trump can credibly threaten to withdraw from NATO or actually do it.
Taiwan needs to find more alliances, because the US might become unreliable, and China knows this. The rest of the world needs to think if they can do without electronics during a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan.
Democracy in the US: will be dismantled in favour of something like Hungary. We will see ministers who are oligarchs like Musk or irresponsible liars like Kennedy. Since the storm is near-perfect, I predict that democracy will give way to oligarchy. Risk of disturbances, repressions and internal conflict will grow.
Until now, only unstable people wanted to assassinate Trump. Given these conditions, I predict that stable but ruthless people who see a danger to their future will join the game. They will reason as follows: “risk has reached certainty and there is still time to prevent outcomes”. If I was working in the Secret Service, I would increase protection on Trump 10 times (unless I hated him).
I live in Eastern Europe, and seriously recommend your people start researching nuclear weapons. :(
/me listening to the sound of a WinXP virtual machine booting under Debian Linux
They can shoot their foot with a grenade launcher next. I’m already out of range.
Having once worked on an open source project that dealt with providing anonymity - it was considered the duty of the release engineer to have an overview of all code committed (and to ask questions, publicly if needed, if they had any doubts) - before compiling and signing the code.
On some months, that was a big load of work and it seemed possible that one person might miss something. So others were encouraged to read and report about irregularities too. I don’t think anyone ever skipped it, because the implications were clear: “if one of us fails, someone somewhere can get imprisoned or killed, not to speak of milder results”.
However, in case of an utility not directly involved with functions that are critical for security - it might be easier to pass through the sieve.
Say you’re trying to defend against something like a Shahed-136. It can hit pretty much anywhere in Ukraine. You can’t stick an AA gun on everything that Russia might consider trading a Shahed-136 for.
As far as I know, the routine in the current war is - the AA gun is on a truck that moves 80 km/h, the drone comes in slower than 300 km/h, one or multiple truck crews position themselves on likely vantage points for intercepting, and the rest is luck.
Both of you are right.
It’s difficult, but how difficult depends on the task you set. If the task is “maintain manually initiated target lock on a clearly defined object on an empty field, despite the communications link breaking for 10 seconds” -> it is “give a team of coders half a year” difficult. It’s been solved before, the solution just needs re-inventing and porting to a different platform.
If it’s “identify whether an object is military, whether it is frienly or hostile, consider if it’s worth attacking, and attack a camouflaged target in a dense forest”, then it’s currently not worth trying.
In 2014, while Ukrainians were busy rioting by tens of thousands - about their government abandoning the EU accession treaty - most of the world was entirely unprepared for taking even a firm political position about the events. After all, Yanukovich was a legitimate president who had only recently resorted to violence. Nobody had expected a revolution over a trade agreement, but he sparked it by having the folks protesting at Maidan beaten and dispersed. If he had talked or compromised with them, history would be considerably different.
As for who eventually took advantage of the situation - well, it was Putin. He used the opportunity to occupy Crimea (while denying that it was occurring) and to start an armed insurrection in Eastern Ukraine (the initiators were well known GRU people, including the now jailed Girkin).
I’m not sure where you get your information, but your source is not competent on Eastern Europe. The US is a far clumsier creature than you imagine (perhaps you expect today’s US to have the manners of the 1960-ties) while Putin’s regime has rarely had any second thoughts, and has been quick to draw and fire, because there’s only one brain making decisions, and he’s been in the Kremlin for decades now…
Nuclear ambitions? Are you even aware that Ukraine gave away its nuclear weapons to a friendly Russia, at a time when nobody even imagined Russia invading Ukraine? In return, though, it received security guarantees, both from the US and Russia. It also handed Russia its strategic bombers - because why have them - and intercontinental ballistic missiles - because what’s the use.
Before Putin entered the path of annexing parts of Ukraine, nobody had any reason to consider Ukraine and Russia to be hostile to each other. You can consult the old polls. The people considered each other brothers, until Putin exploited the confusion of a revolution in Ukraine, starting the invasion he’s now trying to finish. During the years 2014-2022, he gradually became dictator in Russia and brainwashed people into considering Ukrainians enemies. His goal? Making Russia great again, and he felt Russia couldn’t be great without the resources of Ukraine.
However today, after Russia has spent 1000 days grinding meat, I bet that several European countries do indeed want nuclear weapons - without admitting it openly, of course. Because apparently, conventional weapons don’t really deter Putin.
Sorry, but your sentence is laughable. Apparently, you are entirely unaware of the situation in the occupied territories, or in Russia. In Russia, you can get 5 years quite easily for criticizing the war. In the occupied territories, you just disappear if you get in someone’s way. Even most of the fallen Russian soldiers just “go missing”, so nobody would have to pay their relatives. The “native rights” of Russians at the moment are heading quickly towards rock bottom, and might only have some glamour if you offered them to North Koreans.
My recommendation: get informed first. And if your preferred way of getting informed is Facebook, Twitter or YouTube, then before going, be aware that such sites are algorithmically steering you towards material you’re predicted to like and engage with.