Vantage Data House
app.vantagedatahouse.com

Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat’s favor.

I don’t know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

  • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
    1·
    9 days ago

    a lot of early votes for Harris are first time voters or infrequent voters, and not from the pool of 2020 early voters.

    And that’s the #1 problem with polling.

    Look at 538 for PA:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

    Here’s what people miss… Go down the LEFT hand column.

    860LV
    1,586LV
    840LV
    812LV
    812LV
    866RV
    866RV
    794RV
    583LV
    794RV
    1,084LV
    1,256LV
    2,048LV
    2,048LV
    600LV
    600LV

    “LV” - “Likely Voters”.

    Of these 16 polls currently up, 12 of them are trying to determine who is “likely” to vote, and no 2 polls use the same definition.

    Generally “Did you vote in the last 2 elections?”