Bayesianism is about reconciling your squishy priors with hard math. If there’s a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.
I don’t understand your point about Bill Gates. You’re saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better. What does this have to do with EA? Givewell isn’t an armchair-thinktank, it does pretty solid research and analysis comparing the effectiveness of real-world charities that already exist.
The loss of USAID was really bad. Here’s EA Scott Alexander talking about just how bad the scaling back of USAID is. If there were self-proclaimed EA’s involved with villifying USAID, that is ironic indeed.
Socialism requires a popular consensus to function. You can’t impose a collective project by executive fiat.
Well I agree. I don’t have executive fiat. I’d like to increase the amount of popular buy-in. This is one of the main reasons I post on Lemmy. However, that socialism requires concensus whereas charity does not – this is exactly Ozy Brennan’s point. So I think that we don’t disagree at all. Ozy’s observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect – places where big strides can be made because other people aren’t working hard on those problems yet. Perhaps because they sound strange. Like electrocuting shrimp so they don’t feel pain when they die in factory farms (yes this is a real charity).
If there’s a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.
Frequentism won’t work with a contained set of inputs. But now we’re getting into Abstract Algebra rather than probability.
I don’t understand your point about Bill Gates. You’re saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better.
I’m saying he kept coming at the problem dead on without exploring the second and third order consequences of did policies.
Lots of maths up front but the models were shit. The end result was a reactionary mess precisely because Gates and his lackeys didn’t care about the popular politics of their policies.
Ozy’s observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect
The observation that mosquitoe nets and medical interventions have a long term benefit isn’t a problem on its face. But, again, Ozy is attacking a complex problem of supply chains and sustainable development from a very boiled down “do things that look good on my spreadsheet” as the “Effective” solution.
When these plans fall apart, because the proponents fail to account for second order problems, they denounce everyone else as another problem they need to strike head on, rather than considering where they went wrong.
Poverty and food insecurity are the main reasons why some fishermen in Malawi use mosquito nets as illegal fishing nets, an analysis conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs has found.
Because the focus was on disease and food security was discounted as a less pressing problem, the primary tool for mitigating disease spread became an environmental catastrophe.
Bayesianism is about reconciling your squishy priors with hard math. If there’s a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.
I don’t understand your point about Bill Gates. You’re saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better. What does this have to do with EA? Givewell isn’t an armchair-thinktank, it does pretty solid research and analysis comparing the effectiveness of real-world charities that already exist.
The loss of USAID was really bad. Here’s EA Scott Alexander talking about just how bad the scaling back of USAID is. If there were self-proclaimed EA’s involved with villifying USAID, that is ironic indeed.
Well I agree. I don’t have executive fiat. I’d like to increase the amount of popular buy-in. This is one of the main reasons I post on Lemmy. However, that socialism requires concensus whereas charity does not – this is exactly Ozy Brennan’s point. So I think that we don’t disagree at all. Ozy’s observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect – places where big strides can be made because other people aren’t working hard on those problems yet. Perhaps because they sound strange. Like electrocuting shrimp so they don’t feel pain when they die in factory farms (yes this is a real charity).
Frequentism won’t work with a contained set of inputs. But now we’re getting into Abstract Algebra rather than probability.
I’m saying he kept coming at the problem dead on without exploring the second and third order consequences of did policies.
Lots of maths up front but the models were shit. The end result was a reactionary mess precisely because Gates and his lackeys didn’t care about the popular politics of their policies.
The observation that mosquitoe nets and medical interventions have a long term benefit isn’t a problem on its face. But, again, Ozy is attacking a complex problem of supply chains and sustainable development from a very boiled down “do things that look good on my spreadsheet” as the “Effective” solution.
When these plans fall apart, because the proponents fail to account for second order problems, they denounce everyone else as another problem they need to strike head on, rather than considering where they went wrong.
Case in point
Because the focus was on disease and food security was discounted as a less pressing problem, the primary tool for mitigating disease spread became an environmental catastrophe.