The problem with that is they can’t actually point to a metric where when the number goes beyond that point we’ll have ASI. I’ve seen graphs where they have a dotted line that says ape intelligence, and then a bit higher up it has a dotted line that says human intelligence. But there’s no meaningful way they can possibly have actually placed human intelligence on a graph of AI complexity, because brains are not AI so they shouldn’t even be on the graph.

So even if things increase exponentially there’s no way they can possibly know how long until we get AGI.