I don’t think that needs to happen, if you get into a hyperinflation situation, right? And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.
You need a sharp drop in available commodities, services, and investments to achieve hyperinflation. It’s a phenomenon mostly confined to countries trapped under sanctions or trading in very low volume circulation currency.
The US petrodollar balances supply of money against supply of oil (and other major benchmarks - US real estate, US financial debts, etc). This guarantees a strong global demand for dollars, even (perhaps especially, with respect to debt) during downturns.
And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.
He’s been undermining the global trade economy. But it’s a big rock and even the President only has a small hammer.
What has historically triggered big contractions in the US economy has been large scale debt defaults - '20 COVID induced oil price shock, '14 government shutdown, '08 Lehman/AIG massive fraud, '01 Enron/Worldcomm fraud, '87 S&L fraud + oil price shock, etc - all resulted in industry wide credit failures on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars.
What rapidly ended these rescissions was direct intervention by the federal reserve, flooding the financial sector with money and devaluing all that bad debt.
Trump’s a dummy, but he knows this One Neat Trick.
:-/
The global market will pounce on $100M in underpriced Treasuries.
A better question is what the Danes plan to replace the reserves with. Now would be a cool time to roll out EuroBonds.
That said…
This is, has, and will continue to be a dumb reason to sell US Treasuries. The Bond Vigilantes always lose their shirts in the end.
Do you assume that a collapse of the US economy is impossible?
It’s highly unlikely under current conditions
What conditions would be needed to make it likely?
Quite a few. But, just for starters, you’d need the Federal Reserve to turn off the unlimited money spigot.
I don’t think that needs to happen, if you get into a hyperinflation situation, right? And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.
You need a sharp drop in available commodities, services, and investments to achieve hyperinflation. It’s a phenomenon mostly confined to countries trapped under sanctions or trading in very low volume circulation currency.
The US petrodollar balances supply of money against supply of oil (and other major benchmarks - US real estate, US financial debts, etc). This guarantees a strong global demand for dollars, even (perhaps especially, with respect to debt) during downturns.
He’s been undermining the global trade economy. But it’s a big rock and even the President only has a small hammer.
What has historically triggered big contractions in the US economy has been large scale debt defaults - '20 COVID induced oil price shock, '14 government shutdown, '08 Lehman/AIG massive fraud, '01 Enron/Worldcomm fraud, '87 S&L fraud + oil price shock, etc - all resulted in industry wide credit failures on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars.
What rapidly ended these rescissions was direct intervention by the federal reserve, flooding the financial sector with money and devaluing all that bad debt.
Trump’s a dummy, but he knows this One Neat Trick.
Said everyone right before evitable crashes caused by usanian infinite greed.