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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: 14 March 2025

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  • This is super interesting to me, beyond the fact that it evidences the strain on Russia and it’s quickly approaching financial collapse as a consequence of disastrous war on the strong people of Ukraine. This is because I recognized the potential for the next great gold bull run back in 2017 and started allocating assets. As the 2024 election came into focus, I recognized that unfortunately Trump was likely to win, greatly destabilizing the world, tee up the financial collapse of the U.S., and pour gasoline onto what was already an impressive bull market driven by central bank purchases, and accordingly I put everything I owned into a 2x gold ETF back in June 2024, when gold was $2300 an ounce. Everything has unfolded as anticipated, but prices don’t move in a straight line, and early this year, as prices got frothy and topped $5500/oz, there was a big sell off, which is generally to be expected so I just sat tight. Now I know who was selling:

    The announcement follows Russia’s accelerated sale of gold from its reserves. The central bank reduced its holdings for six consecutive months during the first half of 2026 as Moscow sought liquid assets that remained accessible despite the freezing of much of its foreign-currency reserves abroad.

    Look at the chart. I further noticed that the price has seemed to make a solid bottom over the last few months at around $4000/oz, paving the way for the next move upward, which in my opinion will be the big move I’ve been waiting for.

    While it may not be readily apparent to everyone, the U.S. is teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, and when it goes, the dollar will go with it and destroy it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Bold claim I know, but hear me out. You can run a 2% budget deficit indefinitely when your economy grows by 3% annually. However, under Trump the budget deficit is ~6%, and due to his stupid trade wars and the impact on energy costs from the Iran war and other mismanagement, the U.S. economy is growing only at 2%, and probably shrinking if you take out the spending from the AI bubble. Worse, the U.S. has to roll over a big chunk of it’s national debt this year, and has to do so at much higher rates because no sane person or government wants to hold U.S. treasuries. The belligerence of the U.S. on the world stage, the shrinking of trade with the U.S., the inherent vulnerability to asset seizure, etc. makes U.S. treasuries a risky asset, which is reflected in the interest rate. 30 year treasuries have been sitting over 5% for a while now, a rate not held since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a sign of economic health. Trump also has recently appointed his own, handpicked, fed chair, and has appointed 3 of the 7 fed governors. If one more goes, either by Trump firing them, stochastic terrorism, or other means, he will have cemented control over the fed funds rate, and you can absolutely bet he will juice rates in the short term to provide a boost going into the mid term elections in a desperate bid to maintain control over congress. Even if he doesn’t you know he’s going to declare a false emergency, put his ICE goons as every polling station with minorities, and arrest people of color to suppress voting. This in and of itself will cause more to flee U.S. bonds and necessitate money printing to try to keep the U.S. afloat. As a consequence, we will see a massive gold spike as the “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. financial empire crumbles.





  • OMG, as a GrapheneOS user, this is both terrifying and hilarious.

    The US Department of Justice is attempting to prosecute an Atlanta resident in connection with the movement against the police training center known as Cop City because he had GrapheneOS on his phone, an open-source operating system that enables users to enter a passcode and wipe a phone clean.

    I didn’t know it had this feature, but now that I know, I’m going to make sure I know how to use it. Thank you Streisand effect!

    The defendant, Sam Tunick, was stopped for interrogation at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson airport on 24 January last year, after vacationing in the Dominican Republic. Unbeknown to him, federal authorities had put him on a terrorism watchlist because of his alleged association with the movement against Cop City.

    Okay, so it seems that he’s being targeted for exercising his First Amendment rights.

    Tunick asked four times during the interrogation to speak with a lawyer, but was rebuffed each time, according to courtroom testimony. Additionally, the agents produced no warrant and did not read Tunick his rights.

    So, unlawful arrest and further violation of constitutional rights.

    Agent Findley and several others repeatedly asked Tunick to open his phone during the interrogation, telling him they would seize it if he did not. When he finally provided a passcode, “the screen went blank, flashed several times and the phone appeared to restart”, according to the motion.

    Hahahahahahahahahaha! The cops did it themselves! Hahahahahaha!!!







  • You are absolutely correct, and we are running headlong into a financial crisis that will make the 2007 crisis look quaint. You can run 2% budget deficits indefinitely if your economy is growing by 3% per year. However, Trump’s budget deficit is closer to 6%, and his stupid trade wars and actual wars, and general belligerence has been constraining growth and shrinking many areas of the economy. If it weren’t for the spending associated with the AI bubble, which cannot go on forever, the U.S. would be in a clear recession.

    Worse, the U.S. already has a massive amount of accumulated debt, a huge chunk of which has to be rolled over into new bonds issued at a much higher rate this year. The 30 year Treasury is now consistently over the 5% threshold, the longest run since the 2007 financial crisis. This is not sustainable, as it inherently increases the financial burden of the national debt and widens the budget deficit.

    Why is the previously so called “risk free” rate so high? Three main reasons. First, the U.S. is not being fiscally responsible, and bond buyers are waking up to that risk. Second, U.S. belligerence on the world stage is terrifying everyone, and central banks are diversifying away from the U.S. because they no longer see the U.S. as a benevolent peacekeeper. They don’t want to be caught depending on payment from an enemy that has shown a propensity to sanction by freezing assets. Third, a big reason to hold dollar denominated assets is trade, and the U.S. does not honor its trade agreements so there is a shift underway to trade more with others and less with an unreliable partner, so there is simply less reason to hold dollar denominated assets. There is a reason gold has been in the greatest bull market since the 1970s, and it’s not because the U.S. is a paragon of stability.

    How do I see the situation unfolding and what people should be doing to protect themselves? With the midterms approaching and Trump terrified of the results, he’s going to do everything he can to juice the economy and the stock market. His handpicked Fed chair will do everything he can to lower rates. Jerome Powell still sits on the board, which has the potential to stymie Warsh’s efforts, but only one board member needs to flip to give him free reign, and I expect Trump to either fire someone, cut a secret deal to get them to resign, or use stochastic terrorism to take them out. Alternatively, the path may be the Fed’s balance sheet, with the Fed printing money to buy treasuries. The effect will be the same.

    This will ignite a boom and inflation, already an issue, will go through the roof in a way that we’ve never seen in our lifetimes. There will be a mass exodus from the dollar and it will collapse. It will no longer be the world’s reserve currency, and the “exorbitant privilege” the U.S. has enjoyed during our lifetimes will be gone, ushering in what I am calling The Greatest Depression.

    What to do? Buy hard assets, particularly gold. We are at the beginning of the downward slope, and as things come unglued there will be a massive rush to get into gold as more awaken to the events unfolding. To quote Hemingway “How did you go bankrupt? Gradually, and then suddenly.” We are still in the “gradually” phase. Don’t be caught with your pants down in the “suddenly” phase. Finally, if you can get out of the U.S., do it. This is not a situation that will resolve itself in a decade. This is a historical unwinding that will take generations to recover from, and there will be much suffering along the way. Thank you for attending my TED talk.



  • The article the other day stated that the cost of flock vandalism wasn’t borne by flock, but rather the city that has them under the contracts. Look like that city council has opened up a potential budget draining risk by installing a buttload of cameras the people don’t want. Given the tight budgets of small towns, the city could be broke in short order if pissed off citizens rise up and start vandalizing them.



  • There will come a point in the not too distant future when Iran scores a big win causing high casualties, perhaps sinking a warship or something. Trump will be embarrassed publicly, as it will baldly reveal to the public that things aren’t in any way, shape or form under control and are likely to get worse. This will be untenable for Trump, as the only further escalation will be for him to nuke an Iranian city. Oblivious to how this will absolutely destroy the U.S. uniting the world against it, Trump will order the nuclear assault, and his handpicked yes-men running the military will carry out the order. God help us all.