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Cake day: March 14th, 2025

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  • Here is how the Greenland issue will likely play out. Trump doesn’t live in the real world and is too dumb to see the downside to what he is doing, so he will get Greenland one way or the other. The reasonable people on the other side see this, and have poor options. Either they sell Trump Greenland, notwithstanding all the reasons that this would be improper and unnecessary, or they stand firm and Trump moves in and takes it, which would effectively be an attack on a NATO country and trigger article 5. This would end NATO as we know it, as the U.S. would no longer be part of it (which Russia would love to see). If Denmark sells Greenland to the U.S. to appease Trump, they get some money and the fig leaf of NATO remains, as there is no attack on a NATO country. I believe that the latter course is more likely, as appeasement will disrupt the status quo much less, and history shows that appeasement of fascists is usually the first course of action (see, e.g., Chamberlain’s approach towards Nazi Germany in the 1930s.) Of course, this will only embolden Trump and his followers, as it will be seen as Trump’s great success.

    Incidentally, if Trump were smart, what he would do is immediately start building up the base that the U.S. already has, and then get Denmark to agree to several additional bases, ideally in every town on the island, ostensibly to protect U.S. security interests. Then, use the bases to start pumping money into the local economy. Each base would have construction projects, personnel to feed and entertain, etc., etc. Suddenly, the locals would see dollars flowing into their pockets and their communities prosper. The U.S. could offer each citizen of Greenland $1 million tax free dollars if the country joins the U.S., and pressure Denmark to let Greenland put it to the vote. The population of Greenland is only 56,831, so the cost to purchase would be less than $57 billion. If Denmark balks, simply declare Greenland part of the U.S. and it’s citizens U.S. citizens, and make Denmark the bad guy for trying to strip Greenland of it’s right of self determination. If it goes to the vote, it seems highly probable that a majority the citizens would take the financial windfall and Greenland would become part of the U.S… On the outside chance that the citizens voted against their own financial interests, well, the U.S. would already have a ton of military already in place, and show its true colors and take it anyway. With this strategy, the U.S. could at least pretend to be the good guy.





  • Trump is hell-bent on bringing about financial collapse of the U.S. sooner rather than later. Defense is ~14% of the U.S. budget, so a 50% boost would be massive. Add in the fact that his “Big Beautiful Bill” has already boosted the budget deficit to ~6%, much greater than U.S. economic growth, that his tariffs and ejection of immigrants are shrinking the economy, and that ~ 1/3 of the national debt comes due in 2026 and will need to be rolled over, and you have a foolproof recipe for financial collapse. In addition, Jerome Powell’s term as fed chair is up in May, so Trump can appoint a lackey to juice rates and engage in quantitative easing (money printing), and there is zero doubt that the dollar will be absolutely obliterated before Trump leaves office. There is a reason we’re in the greatest gold bull market of all time, and it is not because Trump is competent and the U.S. is a stable anchor for the world’s economy.