Venezuela is a trial balloon to see how the world responds. As expected, the response was timid and weak. This will only embolden this administration. If I had to hazard a guess, Trump’s next military adventure will be an attack on “cartels” in Mexico.

What he’s trying to do is expand U.S. control over the world’s oil, to the detriment of China. The U.S. is self-sufficient for oil production, and is the largest producer in the world. By virtue of it’s location, relationship, and the strength of it’s military, the U.S. has potential means of control over Canada and Mexico’s oil. By virtue of weapons supply and military bases, the U.S. has a lot of control over the oil produced in the middle east as well, and it would be trivial for the U.S. to shut it all down. Since China’s demand for 12.8 million barrels per day far outstrips its production capability of 4.9 million barrels per day, it relies on outside sources, making it vulnerable to suppliers. Bringing Venezuela under U.S. control potentially gives the U.S. more power to drive China’s energy costs higher and one fewer option for China to turn to in the event of turmoil.

Somewhat reasonable. Reddit from 11 years ago was a much better place.

The Trump administration has effectively destroyed U.S. credibility as a benevolent force in the world, and has shown itself as an unreliable partner in world affairs at best, and well-armed and potentially hostile at worst. Unfortunately, the far-right Trump administration has effective control over all three branches of government, and there are few to no checks on the administration’s power. Fair elections seem unlikely. It will take extreme duress to push the public to what will have to effectively be a revolution to oust those entrenching themselves in power. (Un)Fortunately the upcoming depression, which I’m calling “The Greatest Depression”, may provide that push.

One of my favorite fastbacks:

The REAL ID Act, passed by Congress in 2005, enacted the 9/11 Commission’s recommendation that the Federal Government “set standards for the issuance of sources of identification, such as driver’s licenses and identification cards.” The Act and implementing regulations establish minimum security standards for license issuance and production and prohibit federal agencies from accepting for certain official purposes noncompliant driver’s licenses and identification cards, both physical and digital (also known as Mobile Driver’s Licenses, or “mDLs”).

The official purposes covered by the Act and regulations are:

Accessing certain federal facilities; Boarding Federally regulated commercial aircraft; and Entering nuclear power plants.

So Real ID was designed to be good enough for people to use to enter a nuclear power plant, but apparently not reliable enough to identify someone to confirm citizenship? Sounds like some racist bullshit.

Don’t forget that the Supreme Court is in his pocket as well!

For me this has been the worse year of this century

Worst year of this century so far…

That is wild! I’ve had a bit of a glow up over the last few years, and I’ve had people I’ve known well not even recognize me out of context.

Give it some time. Whether intentional or unintentional, Trump has been teeing up economic collapse, and things are likely to come unglued in late 2026. Right-wingers have been harping on “the deficit” for decades, while doing nothing but increasing it. You can maintain a 2% budget deficit indefinitely so long as your economy grows by 3%. However, Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” boosts the budget deficit to ~6%, and ~1/3 of U.S. debt matures in 2026 and will have to be rolled-over into new, higher rate bonds. However, notwithstanding the rapidly approaching massive growth in the cost of debt service, Trump’s policies are shrinking the economy.

It is well known that population growth = economic growth, as each additional person contributes their labor and needs to buy food, housing, clothing, transportation, etc., etc. Conversely, shrinking the population by kicking out people contributing to the economy causes it to shrink, and Trump is kicking out people that help produce food and work in construction, not only shrinking the economy but also boosting the costs of production, contributing to inflation.

In addition, tariffs shrink foreign trade, and levying outrageous tariffs on other countries invites retaliation. Look at what has happened to soybean farmers with respect to China’s purchase of soybeans and alcohol distillers with respect to Canadian purchases of alcohol.

While all of this sets the stage for a future financial crisis, in the same that a household maxing out its credit card debt, rolling it over each month on new credit sets up a personal financial crisis, as eventually you run out of credit cards willing to underwrite your risk, there is reason to believe that the crisis will come sooner rather than later. This is because Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman is up in May of 2026, and Trump will definitely put in a lackey that will do whatever Trump wants, rather than what is prudent for the U.S., and Trump has made it crystal clear that he wants the Fed to lower interest rates to juice the economy.

So what is going to happen is that there will be low demand for U.S. government bonds to refinance the debt, forcing higher rates to compensate for the risky financial position the U.S. is in and also forcing the Fed to buy them, effectively printing money. Add in the fact that the world no longer sees the U.S. as a reliable partner, and it will destroy the dollar, further reducing it’s demand and causing a massive inflation spike, and a financial crisis at a level not seen since the Great Depression, with bank runs, etc. There is a reason that gold is in the greatest bull market of all time, and continues to make new all-time highs. It’s because central banks are shifting away from dollar assets (central banks now hold more gold than U.S. treasuries), and individuals are looking to protect their assets. We will likely have a “melt up” (massive stock market spike) as people scramble to get out of dollars and into harder assets, and then a collapse. I expect gold to top $8K in 2026. Buckle up, because we’re living in interesting times!

It looks like he’s wearing a little helmet.

I know you planned it!

Classic. “All I wanted was a Pepsi, and she wouldn’t give it to me!”

Lol, everyone knows it’s spelled “Phelany”.

I’ve lost more than 70lbs of fat and have not kept it off for about 4 years. I’ve previously lost more than 50lbs, but then regained the weight later. What is different this time is I have a much better understanding of the forces at work and have made fundamental, sustainable lifestyle changes that will help keep me fit over the long term.

The saying is that “you’ll never out exercise a bad diet,” which is completely true, but even if the calorie burn isn’t sufficient to put you in a calorie deficit, there is tremendous value in exercising. Muscle is an endocrine organ, and exercise helps produce things like brain-derived neurotrophic factor a protein that is vital for the functioning of your brain. Muscle is also a huge chunk of your metabolic overhead, so maintaining or increasing muscle mass makes it easier to manage your caloric intake and not be in surplus, adding fat. Something like 90% of people who lose weight gain it all back and then some, and among those able to keep it off, nearly all of them have adapted their lifestyle to increase their baseline level of physical activity. I’ve done it by using a bicycle for nearly all of my local transportation. I live in a warm climate and my city is fairly bikable (though there is definitely room for improvement!) This one change adds ~ 6-7 hours of additional cardio to my week.

When it comes to eating, whatever you do has to be sustainable. You can “go on a diet”, but if you revert to your former norms once you’ve lost the weight, you’re just going to gain it all back. Worse, if you didn’t take care to boost your protein and do resistance training to maintain muscle mass while in a calorie deficit, you’ll have lost substantial muscle mass as well, and you’ll likely end up fatter and in a worse position when all is said and done. With strict caloric restriction without boosting protein or doing resistance training, about 40% of your weight loss will be muscle mass. Minimize the loss of muscle by boosting protein intake to around 1g of protein per lb of lean body mass, and doing some form of resistance training. Weight training in a gym is preferable, but you can do a lot with simply bodyweight fitness at home. Joe Delaney’s beginner gym workout program is a useful starting point, and is what I’m doing now. However, I started with a basic bodyweight fitness program I put together from the info at reddit’s r/bodyweightfitness, and it helped me a lot. Point is, something is better than nothing in this regard, and you need to do it as a matter of habit, like brushing your teeth.

As far as diet goes, there are lots of opinions out there and you have to find what works for you. If you have a lot of fat to lose, the ketogenic diet is helpful but restrictive. I did this for a while, and transitioned into what is more or less a Mediterranean diet. I eat whole foods, minimize highly processed foods, exclude highly processed foods with added sugars, and emphasize lean meats for protein and also fiber intake. I shoot for 160g of protein per day and 50-100g of fiber. If I consume carbohydrates, they have to come with fiber. Whatever dietary regime you choose, calorie tracking with a tool like myfitnesspal is vital. It is so easy to overlook consumption that if you don’t strictly measure and log everything that goes into your mouth, you really have no idea where you’re at with respect to being in a calorie deficit. After you’ve done it long enough you end up with a good grasp on your calorie intake and can relax the burden. No matter what dietary regime you select, it has to be a sustainable part of your life or the results will only be temporary.

If only the U.S. could do the same…

Mulva.

Tad, short for Tadalafil.

Third base!

A ‘reboot’ if you will…