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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: March 14th, 2025

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  • What he’s trying to do is expand U.S. control over the world’s oil, to the detriment of China. The U.S. is self-sufficient for oil production, and is the largest producer in the world. By virtue of it’s location, relationship, and the strength of it’s military, the U.S. has potential means of control over Canada and Mexico’s oil. By virtue of weapons supply and military bases, the U.S. has a lot of control over the oil produced in the middle east as well, and it would be trivial for the U.S. to shut it all down. Since China’s demand for 12.8 million barrels per day far outstrips its production capability of 4.9 million barrels per day, it relies on outside sources, making it vulnerable to suppliers. Bringing Venezuela under U.S. control potentially gives the U.S. more power to drive China’s energy costs higher and one fewer option for China to turn to in the event of turmoil.



  • The Trump administration has effectively destroyed U.S. credibility as a benevolent force in the world, and has shown itself as an unreliable partner in world affairs at best, and well-armed and potentially hostile at worst. Unfortunately, the far-right Trump administration has effective control over all three branches of government, and there are few to no checks on the administration’s power. Fair elections seem unlikely. It will take extreme duress to push the public to what will have to effectively be a revolution to oust those entrenching themselves in power. (Un)Fortunately the upcoming depression, which I’m calling “The Greatest Depression”, may provide that push.



  • The REAL ID Act, passed by Congress in 2005, enacted the 9/11 Commission’s recommendation that the Federal Government “set standards for the issuance of sources of identification, such as driver’s licenses and identification cards.” The Act and implementing regulations establish minimum security standards for license issuance and production and prohibit federal agencies from accepting for certain official purposes noncompliant driver’s licenses and identification cards, both physical and digital (also known as Mobile Driver’s Licenses, or “mDLs”).

    The official purposes covered by the Act and regulations are:

    Accessing certain federal facilities; Boarding Federally regulated commercial aircraft; and Entering nuclear power plants.

    So Real ID was designed to be good enough for people to use to enter a nuclear power plant, but apparently not reliable enough to identify someone to confirm citizenship? Sounds like some racist bullshit.





  • Give it some time. Whether intentional or unintentional, Trump has been teeing up economic collapse, and things are likely to come unglued in late 2026. Right-wingers have been harping on “the deficit” for decades, while doing nothing but increasing it. You can maintain a 2% budget deficit indefinitely so long as your economy grows by 3%. However, Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” boosts the budget deficit to ~6%, and ~1/3 of U.S. debt matures in 2026 and will have to be rolled-over into new, higher rate bonds. However, notwithstanding the rapidly approaching massive growth in the cost of debt service, Trump’s policies are shrinking the economy.

    It is well known that population growth = economic growth, as each additional person contributes their labor and needs to buy food, housing, clothing, transportation, etc., etc. Conversely, shrinking the population by kicking out people contributing to the economy causes it to shrink, and Trump is kicking out people that help produce food and work in construction, not only shrinking the economy but also boosting the costs of production, contributing to inflation.

    In addition, tariffs shrink foreign trade, and levying outrageous tariffs on other countries invites retaliation. Look at what has happened to soybean farmers with respect to China’s purchase of soybeans and alcohol distillers with respect to Canadian purchases of alcohol.

    While all of this sets the stage for a future financial crisis, in the same that a household maxing out its credit card debt, rolling it over each month on new credit sets up a personal financial crisis, as eventually you run out of credit cards willing to underwrite your risk, there is reason to believe that the crisis will come sooner rather than later. This is because Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman is up in May of 2026, and Trump will definitely put in a lackey that will do whatever Trump wants, rather than what is prudent for the U.S., and Trump has made it crystal clear that he wants the Fed to lower interest rates to juice the economy.

    So what is going to happen is that there will be low demand for U.S. government bonds to refinance the debt, forcing higher rates to compensate for the risky financial position the U.S. is in and also forcing the Fed to buy them, effectively printing money. Add in the fact that the world no longer sees the U.S. as a reliable partner, and it will destroy the dollar, further reducing it’s demand and causing a massive inflation spike, and a financial crisis at a level not seen since the Great Depression, with bank runs, etc. There is a reason that gold is in the greatest bull market of all time, and continues to make new all-time highs. It’s because central banks are shifting away from dollar assets (central banks now hold more gold than U.S. treasuries), and individuals are looking to protect their assets. We will likely have a “melt up” (massive stock market spike) as people scramble to get out of dollars and into harder assets, and then a collapse. I expect gold to top $8K in 2026. Buckle up, because we’re living in interesting times!