![](/static/66c60d9f/assets/icons/icon-96x96.png)
![](https://beehaw.org/pictrs/image/0ab58a85-869f-481b-bd34-9e0041a45ee0.png)
Really interesting avenue of research; who’d have thought that discounting future value, as a concept, would come from clergy in a tenuous political and financial position with the Reformation and the start of inflation.
I’m not an economic history expert by any stretch, but isn’t the 1600s the early start of the industrial revolution? Was the industrial revolution the cause of inflation? That would make sense, since it would be a major break in the value of capital in the short term to increase profits in the long term.
The biggest thing that stood out to me was the mismatch between revenue and spending at different levels of government. 90% of spending with only 50% of tax revenue for regional government compared to 10% spending with 50% for the central government. I suppose that’s the mechanism they’re using to centrally manage the economy, by controlling fund transfers to lower levels of government?
Including personal debt and corporate debt, this will also put China above 300% net debt to GDP. That seems really high, but I couldn’t easily find equivalent values for other countries to compare against. Canada has 100% consumer debt to GDP, 107% government debt to GDP, and corporate debt of $2 trillion / $3 trillion GDP is about 67%. (And I think Canada is considered over-leveraged compared to peer countries).
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.