This is what-if thinking. Right now the Russian are clearly showing disinterest in negotiating the end of the war, they are fully prepared to sacrifice more lives in order to gain territories, there is no reason to think they weren’t already at the start.










More specifically he underestimated the preparation of Ukrainian soldiers, notably the fact that NATO instructors came to share their training and tactics and help to prepare for the next war. He was well aware of it though, he used that as an argument that Ukraine was about to join NATO.