Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.
I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!
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MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Didn’t 538 inaccurately call the past 2 elections? Either way- vote like polls don’t exist!
They don’t call elections. They tell you the odds.
Aaaaand… weren’t they wrong the past two elections?
Someone doesn’t understand probability.
Oh I understand it just fine. Fine enough not to rely on polling to indicate anything. 538 isn’t accurate. Why is that up for debate?
Odds can’t be wrong?
If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?
Their odds predicted the past two elections wrong. What part of this is not getting through?
There wasn’t a five in six chance for the candidates during either of the previous two elections. So I’m ignoring your example.
They were wrong. Twice. Enough said.
Here is a direct quote from 538:
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.
And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?
