Their point is interesting, though. There’s a lot of important stuff in the far future for which accurate odds would help society, but it’s effectively impossible to bet on because of high inflation and rug pulls.
Right now we only have secondary indicators, like homeowners insurance pulling out of Florida.
That bet is really dumb to take, since locking your money up for 1 year to win 3% isn’t worth it
You silly goose. The current chance of winning is listed at 3%, not the earnings.
Their point is interesting, though. There’s a lot of important stuff in the far future for which accurate odds would help society, but it’s effectively impossible to bet on because of high inflation and rug pulls.
Right now we only have secondary indicators, like homeowners insurance pulling out of Florida.