I still want to know who made $$millions shorting American and United Airlines before 9/11.
It was $5 million, and the money is unclaimed on the Chicago stock exchange.
Someone has to know who placed the order.
all that is confidential unless SEC form 4.
I’m willing go bet a lot of people making weird bets like this are doing the equivalent of insider trading. The whole concept of betting on random news is ripe for the opportunity for people with insider knowledge to always win big off of the losses of gambling addicts.
That’s the point of those platforms, to bribe the people with that knowledge to reveal it.
What would happen to those platforms if governments and rich people deliberately made a bunch of $35k bets that were designed to lose, making all the copycat gamblers lose?
BTW, who is responsible for preventing new bets after the event has occurred, but before the event expiration time?
They would still make money since they take a cut off every bet. Just not as much as selling their insider data.
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Which, fwiw, night be a feature not a downside? Transparency if the fact is juicy enough.
Yeah unlike sports where at least the games are ostensibly fair, heavily scrutinized, and managed by organizations that try to stop this. Even then it still happens sometimes.
This system is just completely unenforceable insanity.
Of course it is and the creators know that. But it’s profitable
Oh no! Not my unregulated degenerate gambling!
You have to be an idiot to gamble at these sites. I already feel like an idiot for having money in the stock market with all the insider trading, but thanks to inflation you’re fucked if you do and fucked if you don’t.
The stock market is a global suicide machine, change my mind
It’s a ponzi scheme supporting millions of people’s retirements, myself included.
Ideally we have social security, which is a much more regulated and carefully managed ponzi scheme but the people in power use it like a piggy bank because it’s not like they’re going to be around when it runs dry.
I live in a country with a quite strong social security scheme, but the money in our social security funds, like pensions, is mostly invested in the stock market anyways.
Good Take
Unless you had an active decision in oar were privy to the making of the attack happen.
The fact that you end up potentially gambling against insiders like this is one thing that makes these bet on anything sites so dumb to interact with in the first place. Which also makes me not really care about this particular grift.
Gambling is for idiots, so it works out.
IMHO there ought to be a peer-to-peer version so we can buy Trump Insurance without getting fucked from above.
Gambling on something like this is definitely risky, but it’s not as risky if you’re using it to bet on something more defined like sports or who will win the next presidential election.
If someone is going to rig the sports game, then it’s now rigged for all people betting on that game at all locations, not just here.
And at a decentralized platform like this, that should ultimately be safer than the alternatives.
Barron is doing this shit.
Can we make a bet on that ?
Well yea, is it not blatantly obvious to everyone that bad actors will use this “bet on anything” bullshit to grift the system?
I’m certain the people who run the websites know this and don’t give a shit, because it’s profitable.
The weird thing is that it provides OPSEC to US opponents. Simply watch polymarket for a yolo bet
This is the most important comment on the issue. It’s pretty much giving US secrets away ahead of time.
You can’t really stop it when you make a decentralized platform like that.
It’s like saying we made cash and we knew people would fund terrorism with it but oh well.
A decentralized betting platform has benefits. It also has detriments.
Any website involved is really just a front end. It’s on the blockchain and can be used regardless of website and its there forever now, but the website definitely makes it easier to use.
Grifting and and inequality is a baked in part of capitalism. I don’t think you can get around it without fundamentally shifting your approach to money
Also worth adding…
If the owners do have a way to prevent something at the smart contract level, and that was ever compromised (e.g arrested by FBI) and someone was able to just prevent all bets, absolutely nothing is stopping someone else from copying the contracts, removing that ability, and re uploading it.
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Can we all go on polymarket and start a betting pool that Peter Thiel will not be violently assassinated by the end of the year?
Bad people don’t die. The more evil you absorb the longer you live. Like Kissinger living to 100.
Because it has to be here.
I suspect it’s the lack of stress due to being a sociopath. Not caring about others has to make life pretty easy in some respects.
Bad people don’t die
Selection bias. Bad people die all the time, and then we forget about them (or never learn about them) because they stop being in the spotlight.
Nobody talks about the Koch Brothers or the Waltons anymore, as they’ve degraded to irrelevance. Nobody talks about the Carnegies or Fords or Hoovers anymore, for the same reason.
Steve Jobs was an evil fuck and he’s gone now, so he’s off the radar.
Meanwhile, nobody had Lucky Palmer pegged as a sociopath ten years ago and now he’s doing James Bond Villain tier war crimes.
There are exceptions to the rule for example Rush Limbaugh and maybe soon Scott Adams.
Do I vote for or against to make it more likely?
The one who bets for Thiel being dead collects the money if that happens. They would also benefit from actually carrying out the deed. These markets are essentially crowdfunding for dirty stuff.
Or insurance against bad things continuing to happen.
You can, but you’re going to want to have him in your sights before you place the bet
400k seems relatively low for the usual scum. Could be a lower rank military personnel, or a staffer.
Yeah, the bet was only 32k. Honestly surprising more people didn’t have this idea
This is huge opsec issue from now on. Basically you can start seeing military operations before they happen.
Has been for a while now. One of my buddies works in military intelligence. He combs social media for soldier whereabouts to inform military ops.
Social Media is its own beast, but there people can talk shit near anonymous, talk is cheap. With these betting sites, people are putting money in front, which people won’t do without some inside info.
Or a team of them
This is the least of it. Representatives entire families are set for life. Somehow, everybody in their family gets stinking rich after election, and their book is always a “NYTimes best seller” because they are bought by the campaign (and dumped in a landfill), insider trading is rampant, super-PACs.
I’m okay with someone in the military picking up some extra cash. Family has to eat, whether government is “shut down” or not. I hope it was some smart ass buck private.
In the USA politics is the number three easiest way to achieve “financial security”, only inheritors and prosperity gospel preachers have it easier.
It’s not fucking military leaking unless they came in with Drunk Pete Hegseth.
*Pete Kegsbreath
Polymarket, Kalshi and others are Insider trading systems camoflauged as a “Truth Seeker” but at the end, It is a gamble even worse than a gambling casino. The insider trader has a incentive to stack odds against oneself and “beat” a better likelihood in the market. Even as a truth finder, It works at the last second before the actual reveal.
Corrupt politicians are corrupt. More at 11.
This is an interation above simply taking a few hundred stuffed into a potato chip bag.
My question is what are the other predictions
what are the other predictions
They don’t matter since they were probably used to hide the insider knowledge of the Maduro kidnapping.
TIL there’s a website where anyone can bet on anything.
What?! What are the odds?!
Put me down for a tenner
You lost
Fuck
Hey, gimme another ten bucks. Your luck can only get better, right???
I’ll bet you 10 bucks that I’ll lose this 10 bucks I’m betting you.
Fuck! I owe you $10, but I’ve only got this $20. Hey, give me two tens for a $20.
Ever since “Predictive markets” were made legal in 2015 has unfortunately made gambling much more degenerate in the US.
Look for trumps dead bet
Ooh, without even looking I suspect it’s close to even?
Edit: just looked and couldn’t find it? I tried searching “Trump (dies, dead, death, deceased)” and it didn’t come up.
I don’t think they allow for that sort of bets. But I found this bizarre one
Tbf it’s not that weird, the death was so suspicious some theorized at the time that he wasn’t even killed, the pics faked his death and the state “confirmed” it but in reality they shipped him off somewhere quiet to continue his Mossad blackmail ring.
Idk if that’s true but honestly we’re talking about a Mossad agent that had dirt on everyone and state level actors who would have been the help, it is possible, very possible, that it’s true, but afaik there’s no evidence other than speculation, so it probably isn’t. I’m agnostic on it personally.
I guess I was just expecting to see that one. But there’s something fun about these conspiracy theories being open to gambling. I’m gonna bet on steel beams not being able to melt with jet fuel. Gonna mortage my house on that!
Are there any bets on whether or not the Twin Towers are still there and David Copperfield only made it look like they’d been destroyed?
Of course there aren’t. Everyone knows Chris “The Mindfreak” Angel did that
That bet is really dumb to take, since locking your money up for 1 year to win 3% isn’t worth it
You silly goose. The current chance of winning is listed at 3%, not the earnings.
Their point is interesting, though. There’s a lot of important stuff in the far future for which accurate odds would help society, but it’s effectively impossible to bet on because of high inflation and rug pulls.
Right now we only have secondary indicators, like homeowners insurance pulling out of Florida.
Polymarket definitely has a right wing stink to it.
Grifter’s gonna grift.
How is this legal
Crime is legal now
I hate that I was primed for a world with rules when there are none.
Well, you still have to follow the rules. Unless you want to get shot of put into a box for the rest of your life.
Always has been if you’re rich.
The real answer is nuanced, but a combination of “it wasn’t, until bribary”, “enforcement is difficult”, “it’s built to be nuanced around regulation”, “it depends where”, and “it’s decentralized”
Gambling.
It’s disgusting but not necessarily illegal.
It’s unrelated gambling to be specific. You can fix the results or have insider knowledge
Legally they are not betting against the house. People are betting against each other on if a certain event will happen, and the site takes a set percentage for facilitating the bets. This makes it legal under gambling laws in most US States.
It probably can’t be stopped either at this point.
Assuming it was illegal, they could arrest the developers because they are earning money on it, but arresting them and taking the website down won’t stop people from using it as it’s smart contract based on a blockchain. The website is just the front end, the blockchain/smart contract is the backend.
So now you gotta go after the individuals using it, who could annonymize their funds through something like Tornado Cash, making it pretty hard to stop.
So if I opened a physical casino with let’s say roulette without 00 but a commission charge to play it’s legal?
No, roulette is still betting against the house. A more apt comparison is poker, the house has nothing to do with the outcome or the game and has no stakes in the winner or loser when legal. This is why many will either take a percentage of the pot to recoop the cost of facilitating the game and dealer, about 2% I think, or have a membership fee. In many states poker only card houses or card clubs are completely legal.
I bet you a dollar that the ratio of votes on your post will be some number by January 11th.
I bet you a dollar that President Trump will not live to see 2037.
We’re just two people making bets here. Anyone want to sidebar on this action?
I’ll make a bet on how many bets you get!
When there is no punishment, the system must be working perfectly.
This is just a big Stellaris simulation. It’s just that we haven’t founded the United Nations of Earth and reached the year 2200 yet.
