I’d say to put in comparison… Canada and Greenland probably should view themselves as in the same position as Ukraine. The parallels are kind of scary there. IE they sure as hell are doing an impressive job of holding their ground against a much bigger army… but the death toll is horrific… and I can’t imagine the difficult decisions for everyone with regards to how dangerous it is to get involved. While both Putin and Trump are horrible actors… Trump I can’t help but get the feeling he doesn’t understand the concept of MAD, and actually would launch a nuke.
Trump is fundamentally different from Putin. Putin wants to restore the empire Russia lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Trump wants to bully and power trip, but doesn’t want an all out war. After he realized attacking Iran might lead to a more protracted war, he immediately tried to deescalate. Lucky for him Iran has big internal issues and didn’t really want more problems, but other targets might not back down so easily.
This isn’t to say he won’t attack Greenland, but it is less likely than most of Latin American. If Europe doesn’t do anything meaningful to beef up their defenses, he might do it. However, he wouldn’t want a war of attrition against a modern military, but an overwhelming show of force with no clear goal beyond death an mayhem. His strategy is to beat smaller nations until they call him God and bend the knee. He’s a bully, not a conquer.
What will be more scary is if he dies in the middle of escalating wars. JD Vance is a weakling who will easily fold to the rabid zealots who might actually want expensive conquest. They might suspend elections and start forever wars to keep power until they collapse under their own weight.
I’d say to put in comparison… Canada and Greenland probably should view themselves as in the same position as Ukraine. The parallels are kind of scary there. IE they sure as hell are doing an impressive job of holding their ground against a much bigger army… but the death toll is horrific… and I can’t imagine the difficult decisions for everyone with regards to how dangerous it is to get involved. While both Putin and Trump are horrible actors… Trump I can’t help but get the feeling he doesn’t understand the concept of MAD, and actually would launch a nuke.
Trump is fundamentally different from Putin. Putin wants to restore the empire Russia lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Trump wants to bully and power trip, but doesn’t want an all out war. After he realized attacking Iran might lead to a more protracted war, he immediately tried to deescalate. Lucky for him Iran has big internal issues and didn’t really want more problems, but other targets might not back down so easily.
This isn’t to say he won’t attack Greenland, but it is less likely than most of Latin American. If Europe doesn’t do anything meaningful to beef up their defenses, he might do it. However, he wouldn’t want a war of attrition against a modern military, but an overwhelming show of force with no clear goal beyond death an mayhem. His strategy is to beat smaller nations until they call him God and bend the knee. He’s a bully, not a conquer.
What will be more scary is if he dies in the middle of escalating wars. JD Vance is a weakling who will easily fold to the rabid zealots who might actually want expensive conquest. They might suspend elections and start forever wars to keep power until they collapse under their own weight.