Trump is hell-bent on bringing about financial collapse of the U.S. sooner rather than later. Defense is ~14% of the U.S. budget, so a 50% boost would be massive. Add in the fact that his “Big Beautiful Bill” has already boosted the budget deficit to ~6%, much greater than U.S. economic growth, that his tariffs and ejection of immigrants are shrinking the economy, and that ~ 1/3 of the national debt comes due in 2026 and will need to be rolled over, and you have a foolproof recipe for financial collapse. In addition, Jerome Powell’s term as fed chair is up in May, so Trump can appoint a lackey to juice rates and engage in quantitative easing (money printing), and there is zero doubt that the dollar will be absolutely obliterated before Trump leaves office. There is a reason we’re in the greatest gold bull market of all time, and it is not because Trump is competent and the U.S. is a stable anchor for the world’s economy.
There’s been 3 similar empire collapses in the past ~600 years.
First was the Spanish empire, in the 1500s, in a short 50 years they managed to go from the de facto world power, money reserve standard, to what you see them today - a country of little relevance, one of the many.
The next one was the United Kingdom. In the 1800s, up until 1914, aside from the US, not many managed to get out from under the yoke of the British monarch. The British Pound was the money reserve standard, many times more valuable than the US dollar, they were a world power, THE world power. Up until WW1, which pretty much used up all the resources of the Kingdom, with tons of spending, natural resources wasted and so on… Come WW2, and what was left got burned up, India got out from UK control, other countries followed, import slowly stopped, in a short 20 years, the empire was no more.
And finally the USSR. Same shit went down, but in a short 2.5-3 years instead of decades. Money devalued, resources exhausted, country dependent on import collapses when it can no longer afford said import.
And the same shit is going down in the US, even quicker than in the USSR.
I don’t know if you’ve read Ray Dalio’s “Changing World Order”, but it’s in this vein. Here is the animated video he produced covering the ideas in the book in an ELI5 type format. Worth your time if it interests you.
What about the Austro-Hungarian Empire Empire, everybody always forgets about the Habsburg monarchy (1282 to 1918). I’d compare the USA of today to the final days of the Habsburg monarch. It exists, seems strong, nobody will notice if its gone. If the USA folded back into EU, as it probably will in the next 50 years, people would just see the USA history as an odd bit of history that was there to perpetuate slavery in the 18th and 19th Century.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire (which existed only in the 1800s up to 1918), was preceded by a separate Austrian Empire and Kingdom of Hungary, which happened to have the same ruler (same person who had both titles) since the late 1500s. Habsburgs didn’t take control of Hungary until 1526, and even then, limited to the western bits due to Ottoman incursions, and full control wasn’t achieved until 1718. So using 1282 as the beginning of Habsburg rule within Hungary, or equating the Habsburg dynasty with the Austro-Hungarian Empire is quite misleading.
Also, the Empire was hardly a world power, at least not to the level of Spain in the 1400-1500s, or the UK in the 1800s…
I also doubt the US will fold into the EU. Canada wants in, yes, but that’s because the US is totally fucked at the moment. What I suspect will happen is a collapse of the federal over-state, resulting in a union similar to the EU - and potentially on friendly terms with it too - into which Mexico and Canada will be invited too, plus a mutual defense pact.
Trump is hell-bent on bringing about financial collapse of the U.S. sooner rather than later. Defense is ~14% of the U.S. budget, so a 50% boost would be massive. Add in the fact that his “Big Beautiful Bill” has already boosted the budget deficit to ~6%, much greater than U.S. economic growth, that his tariffs and ejection of immigrants are shrinking the economy, and that ~ 1/3 of the national debt comes due in 2026 and will need to be rolled over, and you have a foolproof recipe for financial collapse. In addition, Jerome Powell’s term as fed chair is up in May, so Trump can appoint a lackey to juice rates and engage in quantitative easing (money printing), and there is zero doubt that the dollar will be absolutely obliterated before Trump leaves office. There is a reason we’re in the greatest gold bull market of all time, and it is not because Trump is competent and the U.S. is a stable anchor for the world’s economy.
There’s been 3 similar empire collapses in the past ~600 years.
First was the Spanish empire, in the 1500s, in a short 50 years they managed to go from the de facto world power, money reserve standard, to what you see them today - a country of little relevance, one of the many.
The next one was the United Kingdom. In the 1800s, up until 1914, aside from the US, not many managed to get out from under the yoke of the British monarch. The British Pound was the money reserve standard, many times more valuable than the US dollar, they were a world power, THE world power. Up until WW1, which pretty much used up all the resources of the Kingdom, with tons of spending, natural resources wasted and so on… Come WW2, and what was left got burned up, India got out from UK control, other countries followed, import slowly stopped, in a short 20 years, the empire was no more.
And finally the USSR. Same shit went down, but in a short 2.5-3 years instead of decades. Money devalued, resources exhausted, country dependent on import collapses when it can no longer afford said import.
And the same shit is going down in the US, even quicker than in the USSR.
I’m curious to see what happens when the AI bubble pops and a resulting financial crisis ensues. Things might start moving as soon as this year.
Everyone always forgets about the Ottomans…
Napoleonic France too.
and the Austro-Hungarians fighting the Ottomans.
I don’t know if you’ve read Ray Dalio’s “Changing World Order”, but it’s in this vein. Here is the animated video he produced covering the ideas in the book in an ELI5 type format. Worth your time if it interests you.
What about the Austro-Hungarian Empire Empire, everybody always forgets about the Habsburg monarchy (1282 to 1918). I’d compare the USA of today to the final days of the Habsburg monarch. It exists, seems strong, nobody will notice if its gone. If the USA folded back into EU, as it probably will in the next 50 years, people would just see the USA history as an odd bit of history that was there to perpetuate slavery in the 18th and 19th Century.
I hardly forgot about it, since I’m Hungarian.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire (which existed only in the 1800s up to 1918), was preceded by a separate Austrian Empire and Kingdom of Hungary, which happened to have the same ruler (same person who had both titles) since the late 1500s. Habsburgs didn’t take control of Hungary until 1526, and even then, limited to the western bits due to Ottoman incursions, and full control wasn’t achieved until 1718. So using 1282 as the beginning of Habsburg rule within Hungary, or equating the Habsburg dynasty with the Austro-Hungarian Empire is quite misleading.
Also, the Empire was hardly a world power, at least not to the level of Spain in the 1400-1500s, or the UK in the 1800s…
I also doubt the US will fold into the EU. Canada wants in, yes, but that’s because the US is totally fucked at the moment. What I suspect will happen is a collapse of the federal over-state, resulting in a union similar to the EU - and potentially on friendly terms with it too - into which Mexico and Canada will be invited too, plus a mutual defense pact.
all part of putins plan, hes probably made he couldnt do it the first time.