I’m not arguing that AI won’t get better, I’m arguing that the exponential improvements in AI that op was expecting are mostly wishful thinking.
they could stick to old data only, but then how do you keep growing the dataset by the amounts that have been done recently? that is where a lot of the (diminishing) improvements the last years have come from.
and it is not at all clear how to apply reinforcement learning for more generic tasks like chatbots, without a clear scoring system like both chess and StarCraft have.












3 students share an apartment and 2 of them study a lot but the third spends most his nights partying. The 2 studious housemates decide to pull a prank on him, and one night when he comes home they are waiting for him next to the bedroom door wearing white sheets. One of the friends says ‘welcome friend, I am Peter!’. The other says ‘welcome friend, I am Paul’. The drunk house mate looks at them and says ‘Colleagues! would you mind stepping aside? I am Lazarus!’
yeah, that doesn’t translate… in Dutch, the names refer to St peter and St Paul and both end in -us as well: Petrus and Paulus. Also, ‘being Lazarus’ means being very drunk.