But, and hang with me here, Presidential Elections have a really low R.O.I. Any sensible billionaire knows that the quality investments are in Senators. Once you get one of them elected the chance of them loosing reelection is very low and yet any one of them can put an indefinite hold on any piece legislation and they really have a hold on getting the right kind of people on the courts. Really they should be spending their money more wisely.
/s

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I agree with your take on the old 538 model, but if you read Nate’s new substack it become pretty clear that he’s been ‘captured’. Almost all of his post seem to fairly anti-Harris in their biases and it feels like all of his writings are really meant for one person, that person being the owner of Polymarket who he has a very large consulting contract. What these biases are doing to the Model I don’t know but the new model at 538 which was built from the ground up by other statisticians consistently trends about 10-20% higher odds for Harris taking the election.