After reading more about the deal, it’s actually starting to look pretty smart.
They’re only funding the government until January.
So all the stuff where the Republicans have to bring votes by December isn’t a punt, because the Dems are keeping a loaded gun on the table. If the GOP fail to uphold their side of the deal, they can just shut the government down again, right away, with a clear and obvious justification.
The reality is, actually getting these ACA subsidies extended was never likely to happen. It has to go through a GOP controlled house, and Trump. But by holding out for an agreement to actually put it to a vote, the Dems have put the issue squarely on the GOP. They’re gonna force them to either shoot down their package in the Senate, shoot it down in the House, or have Trump veto it. It’ll fail in one of those ways, mark my words, not it’ll fail in a way that is very obviously the GOP choosing not to stand up for regular Americans. And by extending the issue with the shutdown there’s been enough time for people to start seeing the 2026 rates and really getting a picture of how this is going to hurt.
I think this is a solid win. The subsidies were always doomed, and I don’t think actually extending them was ever the objective. I think the point was to force the GOP to kill them in a very public and obvious way where its clear who is holding the knife. This deal achieves that.
Edit: Strike the above. After understanding some more of the details, it’s not looking nearly as smart as I’d first assumed. Leaving the original up to not ruin the continuity of the thread.
If the GOP fail to uphold their side of the deal, they can just shut the government down again, right away, with a clear and obvious justification.
This is 100% incorrect. Come January, if the Democrats try to drag their feet on funding the government again, the Republican fascists can simply pass a continuing resolution to override the Democrats and prevent another shutdown. Those eight Democrats just gave up the only leverage they’ll ever have to bring back ACA subsidies.
(The reason the Republicans couldn’t just pass a continuing resolution now to end the shutdown is that it can only be done once a year, and they already burned it on the Big Ugly Bill.)
Thanks, that seems to be context I was missing and does change my read on this pretty substantially. Someone else made the same point earlier, but without the specific details about the procedural hows and whys.
That would still force the GOP to burn their one CR for the year in January, which is not nothing, but I can absolutely agree that it’s far less leverage than I’d initially taken it to be.
Yes, we were always going to lose healthcare. trump only wants to destroy Obama’s legacy.
But the Democrats chose the absolute most demoralising time possible to cave and still only used their sacrificial lambs who aren’t up for reelection next year.
They uses the shutdown to win last Tuesday. Now they want to go home.
Dick Durbin (Illinois)
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)
Maggie Hassan (New Hampshire)
Tim Kaine (Virginia)
Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada)
Jacky Rosen (Nevada)
John Fetterman (Pennsylvania)
Angus King (Maine)(“Independent”)
100% this. They’re getting what they wanted, personal safety. If they show thats what moves them, personal threats to their own prosperity or safety, we should take note. The Luddites and Mother Jones are watching us.
No no, see, they are playing the savvy long con. They give in to all demands, at all times, and never fight. And then, they keep doing it. And doing it, and doing it. And THEN! Then, well, then we have a fascist dictatorship and they will not be executed because they were spineless enough not to stand up to the fascists, and it’ll be OK!
Defeatism and capitulation haven’t gotten us very far these past 10 months.
The majority of Americans (52%) blame Republicans for the shutdown and Trump’s disapproval rating was up to 63%.
All they had to do was sit and wait. The heat was on the Republicans.
But no, let them off the hook like centrists always do. This country is in desperate need of a progressive wave.
The ACA subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has promised a vote in December which, I’ll tell you right now, probably means we aren’t going to hear about this again in a meaningful way. You’ll see reporting that the subsidies have expired and that’s it. Sure this was likely going to be the outcome but there isn’t going to be a dramatic vote where the public will lay blame on Republicans unequivocally. This shutdown was that opportunity for accountability and the Democrats blew it.
People are literally starving and can’t sit and wait.
Ooo look at his disapproval rating. That’s what will really matter. If it hits 70% does he automatically step down or somehow stop his dictator shit and protect 2025?
And before you say starving people disapproving the president will start rioting, I want you to know that’s actually part of the plan and is detailed in project 2025. One of the last steps to ending democracy is issuing the insurrection act and/or martial law.
And in 2 months they won’t have any health insurance because their premiums will be doubling, so they will be starving then as well. All that has happened is that the Democrats have given the Republicans everything they wanted again.
Sadly capitulation leaves us in a position where suffering is the only outcome. Now millions of people will lose healthcare coverage and millions more will have their premiums increase. Tens of thousands already die annually in the US due to lack of access to coverage. This will add thousands more.
There was a court order for Trumps administration to tap into an emergency fund to send out SNAP benefits for this month which Trump intended to defy.
The question is who do people think is responsible? I cited those numbers because clearly the average American holds Trump and his administration accountable for this.
Your language is weak and passive. People were starving? No, Donald Trump and his administration were willingly and conciously starving people. It was up to them to find a solution to that and there were several options. They control all facets of government. They just didn’t care.
The only point of having the shutdown go this long was to secure concessions. Some type of long term benefit for the short term struggle. Now people have suffered for nothing, courtesy of the Democrats.
We need to stop acting like the Democrats are the adults in a room full of children, left no choice but to “save” every situation by capitulating to fascists. Because I think you know where that takes us. Or at least I hope you do.
If it was a win, everyone would have voted for it. They would have declared victory. They would not have quietly done this on a Sunday with the minimum votes so most of them could have plausible deniability.
What. You are overthinking this. I’m sorry to tell you politics in this country is far stupider and more evil than you have been led to believe.
We could have had not only healthcare subsidies but actual single-payer healthcare if the Dems had any balls or actual principles at all in the last decade and a half.
There is nothing smart about this, it’s just greed winning out. Schumer was pressured with either promises of payouts or threats of discontinued payouts, so he did what he’s fucking done before, he organized the vote, secured the individual votes, then backed out at the last second and voted against his own proposal so the accountability doesn’t land on him.
Trying to rationalize that ACA was “doomed from the start” is capitulating with the vile fucks who want to take all our money and hard work and then let us die in the goddamn street. Fuck off with this 4Dchess coping. Fuck the democrats, fuck the republicans, fuck anyone who tries to tell people that there’s anything good or smart happening in our leadership.
People are going to die while the donors dine in Gatsby-themed ballrooms.
Selling today for tomorrow erases all the pain that was suffered for a promise to do the same tomorrow. Neither party is in our favor. Burn it to the ground.
The vote in January only requires a majority vote which the Republicans can push through without any Democrat support. They have no incentive to work with Democrats for that vote.
Interesting. That’s a procedural detail I wasn’t aware of. Is there somewhere I can read up more on that? Why is it specifically that this vote could be filibustered but that one can’t?
The Senate gets to use it once a year to not require 60 votes. It was last used it on July 4th to push through the cuts to Medicaid, which is why it can’t be used again now. January being a new year means Republicans can ignore Democrats again and continue to push their own agenda without bipartisan support.
From Wikipedia:
the Senate can pass one bill per year affecting each subject.
The procedure overrides the Senate’s filibuster rules, which may otherwise require a sixty-vote supermajority for passage. Bills described as reconciliation bills can pass the Senate by a simple majority of fifty-one votes or fifty votes plus the vice president’s as the tie-breaker.
Thanks, that helps a lot and definitely recontextualises the whole situation. I can still seem some advantage in forcing the GOP to burn their one CR in January, but that’s definitely a much smaller threat than I had previously assumed.
I don’t think there’s much calculation being done by anyone here, but I guess we’ll see. With 2026 being midterms, i doubt democrats will pressure another shutdown in the summer/fall and risk losing their seat.
You’re projecting competence on people who never meet the moment
They’re not going to fix healthcare in January. They’re not even going start a fight over it. By January, open enrollment will be over, and the fight will already be lost
If they had just waited until Thanksgiving, they could have gotten anything they wanted. There would have been consequences, and the blame would be squarely on Trump
Now? This was all for nothing. Maybe Republicans gave up some ground on the off cycle elections… But all of this was to force a negotiation
Then, days after getting a seat at the table, they immediately fold. Hell, reopening everything until January might have been the opening offer
The only way this works is if Republicans vote no in December. Then in January people start to see the massive increase in insurance directly taken out of their paychecks.
The dems then get to force another shutdown with more support because many Americans can only understand after something effects them directly.
I think they chose a bad time to do this, but here we are
You know… if I was a Russian disinfo gremlin desperate for something to pivot to after the whole “The name is Mamdani” spanking they just got I’d probably also be trying to amplify the whole “The Dems are cowards” messaging. Problem is that, thanks to years of their machinations, more people are actually checking sources and reading details now. Good.
These shitheads. They only had to do nothing, and they managed to fail at it.
After reading more about the deal, it’s actually starting to look pretty smart.
They’re only funding the government until January.
So all the stuff where the Republicans have to bring votes by December isn’t a punt, because the Dems are keeping a loaded gun on the table. If the GOP fail to uphold their side of the deal, they can just shut the government down again, right away, with a clear and obvious justification.
The reality is, actually getting these ACA subsidies extended was never likely to happen. It has to go through a GOP controlled house, and Trump. But by holding out for an agreement to actually put it to a vote, the Dems have put the issue squarely on the GOP. They’re gonna force them to either shoot down their package in the Senate, shoot it down in the House, or have Trump veto it. It’ll fail in one of those ways, mark my words, not it’ll fail in a way that is very obviously the GOP choosing not to stand up for regular Americans. And by extending the issue with the shutdown there’s been enough time for people to start seeing the 2026 rates and really getting a picture of how this is going to hurt.
I think this is a solid win. The subsidies were always doomed, and I don’t think actually extending them was ever the objective. I think the point was to force the GOP to kill them in a very public and obvious way where its clear who is holding the knife. This deal achieves that.
Edit: Strike the above. After understanding some more of the details, it’s not looking nearly as smart as I’d first assumed. Leaving the original up to not ruin the continuity of the thread.
This is why I reserve skepticism even for well reasoned posts.
This is 100% incorrect. Come January, if the Democrats try to drag their feet on funding the government again, the Republican fascists can simply pass a continuing resolution to override the Democrats and prevent another shutdown. Those eight Democrats just gave up the only leverage they’ll ever have to bring back ACA subsidies.
(The reason the Republicans couldn’t just pass a continuing resolution now to end the shutdown is that it can only be done once a year, and they already burned it on the Big Ugly Bill.)
Thanks, that seems to be context I was missing and does change my read on this pretty substantially. Someone else made the same point earlier, but without the specific details about the procedural hows and whys.
That would still force the GOP to burn their one CR for the year in January, which is not nothing, but I can absolutely agree that it’s far less leverage than I’d initially taken it to be.
No, it is not fucking 4d chess.
Yes, we were always going to lose healthcare. trump only wants to destroy Obama’s legacy.
But the Democrats chose the absolute most demoralising time possible to cave and still only used their sacrificial lambs who aren’t up for reelection next year.
They uses the shutdown to win last Tuesday. Now they want to go home.
Hey Mr. Tallyman, tally me defectors.
Dick Durbin (Illinois)
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) Maggie Hassan (New Hampshire)
Tim Kaine (Virginia)
Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada)
Jacky Rosen (Nevada) John Fetterman (Pennsylvania) Angus King (Maine)(“Independent”)
DAAAY-O daylight come and the shutdown is gone!
100% this. They’re getting what they wanted, personal safety. If they show thats what moves them, personal threats to their own prosperity or safety, we should take note. The Luddites and Mother Jones are watching us.
I think their strategy was to force the issue in January. The person you replied to is right about that.
But they chose the absolute worse time to do it and it makes them look terrible. It was a shit play
No no, see, they are playing the savvy long con. They give in to all demands, at all times, and never fight. And then, they keep doing it. And doing it, and doing it. And THEN! Then, well, then we have a fascist dictatorship and they will not be executed because they were spineless enough not to stand up to the fascists, and it’ll be OK!
Defeatism and capitulation haven’t gotten us very far these past 10 months.
The majority of Americans (52%) blame Republicans for the shutdown and Trump’s disapproval rating was up to 63%.
All they had to do was sit and wait. The heat was on the Republicans.
But no, let them off the hook like centrists always do. This country is in desperate need of a progressive wave.
The ACA subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has promised a vote in December which, I’ll tell you right now, probably means we aren’t going to hear about this again in a meaningful way. You’ll see reporting that the subsidies have expired and that’s it. Sure this was likely going to be the outcome but there isn’t going to be a dramatic vote where the public will lay blame on Republicans unequivocally. This shutdown was that opportunity for accountability and the Democrats blew it.
People are literally starving and can’t sit and wait.
Ooo look at his disapproval rating. That’s what will really matter. If it hits 70% does he automatically step down or somehow stop his dictator shit and protect 2025?
And before you say starving people disapproving the president will start rioting, I want you to know that’s actually part of the plan and is detailed in project 2025. One of the last steps to ending democracy is issuing the insurrection act and/or martial law.
And in 2 months they won’t have any health insurance because their premiums will be doubling, so they will be starving then as well. All that has happened is that the Democrats have given the Republicans everything they wanted again.
Sadly capitulation leaves us in a position where suffering is the only outcome. Now millions of people will lose healthcare coverage and millions more will have their premiums increase. Tens of thousands already die annually in the US due to lack of access to coverage. This will add thousands more.
There was a court order for Trumps administration to tap into an emergency fund to send out SNAP benefits for this month which Trump intended to defy.
The question is who do people think is responsible? I cited those numbers because clearly the average American holds Trump and his administration accountable for this.
Your language is weak and passive. People were starving? No, Donald Trump and his administration were willingly and conciously starving people. It was up to them to find a solution to that and there were several options. They control all facets of government. They just didn’t care.
The only point of having the shutdown go this long was to secure concessions. Some type of long term benefit for the short term struggle. Now people have suffered for nothing, courtesy of the Democrats.
We need to stop acting like the Democrats are the adults in a room full of children, left no choice but to “save” every situation by capitulating to fascists. Because I think you know where that takes us. Or at least I hope you do.
If it was a win, everyone would have voted for it. They would have declared victory. They would not have quietly done this on a Sunday with the minimum votes so most of them could have plausible deniability.
What. You are overthinking this. I’m sorry to tell you politics in this country is far stupider and more evil than you have been led to believe.
We could have had not only healthcare subsidies but actual single-payer healthcare if the Dems had any balls or actual principles at all in the last decade and a half.
There is nothing smart about this, it’s just greed winning out. Schumer was pressured with either promises of payouts or threats of discontinued payouts, so he did what he’s fucking done before, he organized the vote, secured the individual votes, then backed out at the last second and voted against his own proposal so the accountability doesn’t land on him.
Trying to rationalize that ACA was “doomed from the start” is capitulating with the vile fucks who want to take all our money and hard work and then let us die in the goddamn street. Fuck off with this 4Dchess coping. Fuck the democrats, fuck the republicans, fuck anyone who tries to tell people that there’s anything good or smart happening in our leadership.
People are going to die while the donors dine in Gatsby-themed ballrooms.
Selling today for tomorrow erases all the pain that was suffered for a promise to do the same tomorrow. Neither party is in our favor. Burn it to the ground.
Another video game general.
Think SNAP payments will go through if we ‘burn it to the ground?’
Think the nuclear submarines will just vanish?
The vote in January only requires a majority vote which the Republicans can push through without any Democrat support. They have no incentive to work with Democrats for that vote.
Interesting. That’s a procedural detail I wasn’t aware of. Is there somewhere I can read up more on that? Why is it specifically that this vote could be filibustered but that one can’t?
Budget reconciliation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)
The Senate gets to use it once a year to not require 60 votes. It was last used it on July 4th to push through the cuts to Medicaid, which is why it can’t be used again now. January being a new year means Republicans can ignore Democrats again and continue to push their own agenda without bipartisan support.
From Wikipedia:
Thanks, that helps a lot and definitely recontextualises the whole situation. I can still seem some advantage in forcing the GOP to burn their one CR in January, but that’s definitely a much smaller threat than I had previously assumed.
I don’t think there’s much calculation being done by anyone here, but I guess we’ll see. With 2026 being midterms, i doubt democrats will pressure another shutdown in the summer/fall and risk losing their seat.
You’re projecting competence on people who never meet the moment
They’re not going to fix healthcare in January. They’re not even going start a fight over it. By January, open enrollment will be over, and the fight will already be lost
If they had just waited until Thanksgiving, they could have gotten anything they wanted. There would have been consequences, and the blame would be squarely on Trump
Now? This was all for nothing. Maybe Republicans gave up some ground on the off cycle elections… But all of this was to force a negotiation
Then, days after getting a seat at the table, they immediately fold. Hell, reopening everything until January might have been the opening offer
Just, no.
There is no master plan, there is no 3d chess, this is money talking.
of course it would have happened
all the dems had to do was nothing
The only way this works is if Republicans vote no in December. Then in January people start to see the massive increase in insurance directly taken out of their paychecks.
The dems then get to force another shutdown with more support because many Americans can only understand after something effects them directly.
I think they chose a bad time to do this, but here we are
You know… if I was a Russian disinfo gremlin desperate for something to pivot to after the whole “The name is Mamdani” spanking they just got I’d probably also be trying to amplify the whole “The Dems are cowards” messaging. Problem is that, thanks to years of their machinations, more people are actually checking sources and reading details now. Good.
Some of us have been watching for longer than that even.