Hey Americans, look at the bright side. We could be dragging it out for years when it should’ve taken weeks, destroying any possible future for America by killing all the young men. Not like anybody is doing that.
We’re lucky to be getting away with only losing money.
You kinda don’t though. They’re paying massive amounts to keep the Strait open, because of the powerful automotive and petroleum lobbies that control much of the US government.
Since this is a war of aggression on the part of the US, the US could just walk away from it. It’s very unlikely that Iran would attack in the US.
Iran will just shut down the strait again if he doesn’t.
The US could just leave and let them do that. The strait isn’t even US territory
The world economy, including the US, depends on that strait.
Yes, and the US could just ignore that. It didn’t stop them from starting the war in the first place, after all.
Dementia Don didn’t think about the strait when he attacked and fired anybody in his admin that would have been against it.
Yes, you may see an economic downturn. Losing a war generally doesn’t result in sunshine and rainbows.
The US is a net exporter of oil. If we put price and export controls on domestic oil we could let them keep the strait closed and not suffer any increase in gas prices.
It’s just that export and price controls cut into the profits of the oil corporations, who have been making bank off this and are the real winners of this whole thing, and trump would never let that happen.
The majority of US refinery capacity is designed to process the heavy crude we import from elsewhere, the light crude we extract domestically is newer industry that doesn’t have equivalent refinery capacity, that’s why we export it and why we’re a net exporter overall. Our extraction and refinery mismatch is why your plan wouldn’t work. We would instead burn quickly through the < 4 months of national oil reserves we have left.
Is there much heavy crude coming out of the strait? I always thought gulf oil was pretty light and the heavy shit mostly came from Venezuela and Canada who would be uneffected by the strait being close.
It is, and most of it goes to Asia, but since oil demand is just barely met all over the world a supply shortage anywhere is felt everywhere through rippling demand. But I was just explaining why a closed-door domestic oil policy wouldn’t work in the USA despite our net export. Under any foreseeable global demand regime.
No, they couldn’t do that, because the US economy would be in even more shambles. You are seriously misunderstanding the situation here, or is it just US copism?
Dunno, sounds like Americas problem. They started a war they can’t win.
Right. That was basically their second sentence.
They’re paying massive amounts to keep the Strait open
Since this is a war of aggression on the part of the US, the US could just walk away from it.
Which contradicts this.
US oil companies are LOVING the blockade. They’re not hampered at all by the blockade, but they can raise their prices right along with the market. They’re not spending a penny more, but are selling for much higher prices.
And if the prices of the petroil come down, they will just keep it high
Because oil is an inelastic demand, even if the all the oil removed showed up tomorrow, the price likely won’t move much, because countries will be using the returned stock to fill up their strategic reserves.
I mean at all, that’s how things work, when there was the GPUs crisis, the prices spiked and then the GPUs never went back down to normal cuz “huh, they still pay us with those high prices? Nicee”
It will happen to petroil too, the obly thing that can save us is if the government does something about it, which is realistic for some countries but not for every country (like, it’s totally unrealistic in the USA)
GPUs are still not going back down because the AI bubble is still inflating and our currency is increasingly worthless.
The idea of inelastic demand means that relief for oil prices comes much slower, because oil is required for everything. The price of GPUs would go down to equilibrium the instant more became available to the market, but oil will lag by a large margin.
It just means things won’t get better anytime soon.
Yep- no, it was like that before the AI bullshit too, the GPU demand increased from 2013 due to bitcoin miners until the offer couldn’t keep up anymore in 2017, the production caugh up the demand(and surpassed it too) in 2022/2023, but the prices after that were still higher than before the crisis because people would still buy the overpriced shit.
Accept that, capitalism works like this
Im not really arguing the cause, becuase it’s abundantly clear its greedy corpos making life impossible at this point, just that oil is a special case of how badly we are about to be fucked, and why it wouldn’t go back down after the strait opens even if there wasn’t greedy corporate pigs doing what they do.
It is unlikely that Iran would attack the US mainland but they could just continue attacking US military bases in Qatar, UAE and Saudi.
Oil is a globally consumed commodity, when the price of a barrel goes up this affects American consumers. The US has been using its strategic oil reserve to attempt to mitigate a politically damaging price shock. Oil price is the biggest factor affecting inflation that has begun to affect the American population since the war began. Trump does not fear the oil lobby who are currently making bank and, he fears an embarrassing defeat in the November elections.
But attacks on the US was never the threat from Iran. The US is extremely well insulated against direct attacks from basically all nations. It’s the global world order that is largely run by, and benefits, the US that is at stake now.
It was: attacks on our allies (i.e. Israel), attacks on the global economy (i.e. continuing to shut the straight of hormuz), and pursuit of nuclear weapons (would drastically change the power dynamic in the region if it were to happen).
The US can not just walk away.
No, that was exactly the thing. Trump tried to walk back from it, but he couldn’t because Iran could shut down the strait and thus cripple the world economy. The war ended when Iran wanted it to end, not the US.
cripple the
worldUS economyftfy
Let’s call it half the world economy. North Africa is being really badly hit, Pakistan is screwed, and Europe is being somewhat badly hit.
The loser pays money. Typical for the Trump administration. Sadly it comes out of all of our pockets.
I don’t think that’s the roast it was meant to be…
The meme is implying:
The U.S. is so accustomed to being either victorious or at least never conquered that many Americans have never had to think about what a traditional military defeat looks like.
The hidden premise is:
Americans are shocked because they’re not used to being on the receiving end of victory conditions.
Eh, all it really implies is that the US has no idea how wars work, regardless of whether they result in a win or loss. Assuming we know anything at all is giving us too much credit.
I don’t think that’s the roast it was meant to be…
Eh, depends on how you think about it. I’m roasting (the relevant subset of) Americans because they’re acting like spoiled children.
And there’s a heavily uneducated subset of the population that doesn’t realize we’ve lost before
In this case they literally could just pack up and leave the area. The US has limited targets that Iran has the capability to hit, and Iran has no real capability to contest the open ocean.
It’s not like they share a land border.
In this case they literally could just pack up and leave the area.
If that happened, Iran would have full control over Hormuz, meaning they’d get to extract tolls decide who gets to pass and who doesn’t. Concessions would just happen by default instead of being agreed upon.
The Strait passes through Iran’s territorial waters, by international maritime law.
This gives Iran (and Oman) the right to enforce their laws in the Strait, and close it if that is necessary for their national security.
The US haven’t ratified the treaty governing those rules, because they want to be the sole arbiters of what’s “international waters”.Yes. The US could leave and let Iran do what ever it likes in the area. But Iran isn’t likely to do anything to the US.
Except raise oil prices for US consumers and/or destroy the petrodollar.
That happens even without wars.
Yeah shit happens when you lose a war. Deal with it.
They already were doing a lot to the US by keeping the strait closed. It seems like a lot of you are completely misinformed about what went down here. The US could not just pack up and leave, Trump wanted to do that several times throughout this process, but even he found out that that was not possible.
The US could not just pack up and leave
Sure it could. I think you’re the one who’s completely misinformed.
The USA can leave the strait at any time. It’s not theirs.
Can the untrained dog choose not to grab the untended chicken breast off the counter?
Wasn’t the strait open before this whole shitshow? America can live with its fuckup.
Iran has always had full control over Hormuz, whether the USA likes it or not. They had full control before the USA attacked, they have full control now, and they will have full control after the USA leaves.
Something like 20% of the worlds fertilizer and oil goes through there when it’s open. In the USA, crop yields will be down 5-10% for corn and i bet lots of farmers can’t afford the increased prices. Some will go bankrupt, and I bet a lot vote Republican.
Oil impacts the cost of everything, diesel and petroleum for transport of goods,driving to work and heating/cooking . Petroleum products also include plastics and rubber.
Trump and Bibi fucked the global economy for a year, including the US
I’d like to see a class action lawsuit against the United States government for needlessly raising the cost of living for a major part of the world.
In which court?
And who’s going to drag the US government in front of it?
A demand like yours (aimed by Austria at Serbia) is what started WW1.
